The war in Ukraine from a military point of view is a local war, although the massive support in money, weapons systems, training and information provided by NATO to Kiev gives it a dimension that none of the previous local wars in history have had.
But even so it remains a local war, since the hostilities are confined to the territory of Ukraine, with the exception of some sporadic Ukrainian sabotage and small-scale attacks in Crimea and the border zone inside Russia .It is not, however, a given that the war will continue to develop in the future as it has so far. The critical question is whether it will remain confined to Ukraine or expand in an uncontrolled escalation. Escalation exists, but so far it is a quantitative escalation, i.e. within the existing framework. The unspecified engagement of an American drone with two Russian fighter jets in the Black Sea, resulting in the destruction of the first, is an episode that shows that it is not at all difficult for a heated episode between Russians and Americans to arise.
The concern, therefore, concerns the possibility of a qualitative escalation, that is, the possibility of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia, in which case the conflict will evolve into an almost global one and of course the nuclear tool will be included in its agenda. We remind you that Moscow withdrew from the treaty on strategic nuclear weapons, sending a message to Washington that the nuclear paper is on the shelf but, if necessary, it will come down to the table. For his part, President Biden pledged on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion that he would continue arming Ukraine. However, albeit slowly, Russian forces are steadily gaining ground on the Donbas front, displacing Ukrainian forces. Indeed, according to Western sources, it is only a matter of time before the total fall of the almost surrounded Bahamut, which has acquired, in addition to its real strategic importance, an even greater symbolic one. As the Ukrainian commander-in-chief Zaluzny said, if Bakhmut falls there is nothing serious to prevent a Russian advance.
MuteFaced with these conditions, Kiev seeks total war as a way out.That is why he is asking for long-range missiles to hit the interior of Russia. It is typical – in extreme exaggeration – the statement of a Ukrainian official that Ukrainian tanks will parade in Moscow ! But according to Western analysts, Russia is the favorite to win this war. First, because Western expectations that sanctions would bring the Russian economy to its knees, prevent a prolongation of the war and destabilize the Putin regime have been dashed.. Conversely, rising energy, food and raw material prices have fueled inflation in the West. And the attempt by both the American and the European Central Bank to tame him with an increase in interest rates has already led to the collapse of three American banks and is pushing two large European banks towards the brink.
The second reason is the potential difference. Although the Russian forces suffered three serious tactical defeats ( Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson), although the West is depleting its own stockpiles of weapons systems and ammunition to supply Ukraine, the Russian advantage, both quantitative and qualitative, is clear. And this can be seen lately, when the Russian General Staff, having been slapped, was forced to change its course. The prospect of a Ukrainian strategic defeat prompts not only the Europeans but also Washington to start moving towards a compromise, while there is still time. The Rand Corporation’s latest report is illustrative. The West is stepping up shipments of modern weapons to counterbalance the Russian advantage. They hope this will force Putin to negotiate, limiting himself to the gains he already has. This game, however, is dangerous. If the West delivers the missiles that Kiev is asking for and the Ukrainians hit Russian cities, the Russians will use whatever weapons they have to destroy Ukraine, including tactical or “small” nukes . In such a case, instead of reaching equilibrium and negotiations, the chances of the conflict developing into a nuclear one will greatly increase.
The possibility of an end to the conflict through compromise gathers in this period negligible possibilities. The Russians expect their upcoming major offensive to break Ukrainian defenses and put them in a position to dictate their terms. That is why they officially ruled out the start of peace negotiations. On the other hand, even Zelensky is not likely to sign the surrender to Russia of the Ukrainian territories it currently holds and much more of what it will conquer if its offensive succeeds. Consequently, everything indicates that the war will be to the last drop. As we mentioned above, the development will be decided by the imminent Russian attack.
The US government has been seduced by its anti-Russian passion, which has pushed it to take its wishes for reality especially in terms of the effectiveness of sanctionsn. This war, however, is not only existential for Ukraine but also for Russia. A Russian defeat would not only destabilize the Putin regime. It would degrade it to the point of dissolution, and that is why no one in Moscow is going to let things get there, even if as a last resort they have to use tactical nukes. In the White House they forgot John Kennedy’s saying that it is a dangerous adventure to squeeze a nuclear power to an existential level, much more the one with the largest number of nuclear warheads. Fortunately, we’re not there yet.
Source : Para Politika
