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Russian Offensive in Donbas Reaches Climax, Ukraine May Seize Initiative

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Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the Russian offensive in the Donbass may be approaching a climax, and Ukraine has the opportunity to seize the initiative and launch a counteroffensive.

Details : Analysts note that the pace of Russian offensives across the war zone has slowed in recent weeks, suggesting that Russia’s spring offensive in Donbas may be approaching a climax.

They also point out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine probably carried out a local counterattack southwest of Bakhmut against the background of intensified discussions in Russia of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area. And these discussions indicate that “Russian sources are increasingly unsure of the ability of the Russian military to keep the initiative around Bakhmut.”

 

In addition, the Ukrainian military continues to point out that the massive losses of Russian troops in the Vuhledar region seriously weaken the Russian offensive potential in the Donetsk region, the Institute for the Study of War said in a review.

Experts point out: “The special restoration of existing units for deployment near Vuhledar, as well as the apparent creation of sub-brigade echeloned special formations, indicates that Russia’s combat capabilities in the west of the Donetsk region have deteriorated significantly.”

Considering the tendencies of hostilities, according to experts, “Ukraine has every opportunity to seize the initiative and launch a counteroffensive in critical sectors of the current front line.”

The main conclusions from ISW on the course of hostilities on March 19 :

  • Russian troops continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line.
  • The occupiers seem to have made little progress near Bogdanovka (6 km northwest of Bakhmut) as offensive operations continue in and around Bakhmut.
  • They also continued offensive operations in the vicinity of Donetsk and may have advanced towards the village of Berdichi northwest of Avdiivka.
  • In addition, Russian troops continued to build defensive fortifications throughout southern Ukraine.
  • In the occupied Kherson region, unidentified persons killed Guleiter, the so-called platoon commander of the patrol service of the Russian occupation Ministry of Internal Affairs, by blowing up his car. Ukrainian media have speculated that the attack could have been a guerrilla attack or the result of Russian civil strife.

Source : Pravda

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